Will
Mobiles get Slow in 2009?
Mobile phone market will get affected because of economic crisis and
total mobile phone volumes will be 1.9% lower in 2009 than 2008 levels,
says IDC. The researcher expects worldwide growth to be just 7.1% in
2008 before slipping into negative growth in 2009. Other analysts have
their own views.
In
recent months, says IDC, a number of major industry players – including
component suppliers, handset makers, and operators – have announced
their concerns about handset volumes in 2009. Most have indicated that
they expect a year-over-year decrease due to the flagging global
economy.
"Nokia's announcement was the first sign of troubles to come," said Ryan
Reith, senior analyst with IDC's Mobile Phone Tracker. "However, the
real concerns set in with announcements from the chipset vendors who
supply the industry. Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, and MediaTek are among
some of the suppliers announcing reductions in manufacturing for the
upcoming year. There is a lot of uncertainty about how the markets will
fare and inventory levels will be more of a focus point then ever
before."
The
economic crunch, according to IDC, has also affected consumer behavior,
particularly consumers' plans to purchase new devices. With less
disposable income available and other expenses competing for attention,
consumers may choose to hold on to their current devices rather than
replace or upgrade them at the next possible opportunity, usually when a
service contract expires.
IDC
does not expect the downturn in mobile phone shipments to stretch past
2009. By 2010, the worldwide mobile phone market will show signs of
improvement as economic recovery plans will have taken effect.
IDC
expects converged mobile devices – smartphones – to grow 8.9% worldwide
in 2009. This contrasts sharply against the negative growth expected for
the entire mobile phone market. Beyond 2009, growth will return to
double-digit territory, faster than the overall mobile phone market.
However, in a recent study, another
research firm Gartner said that the
harsh economic situation is affecting the smartphone market. It observed
that the worldwide smartphone sales reached the lowest growth rate of
11.5% with 36.5 million units sold in the third quarter of 2008.
"The current economic climate is negatively impacting
sales of higher end devices,” said Roberta Cozza, principal analyst at
Gartner.
Here’s
another
observation from International Telecommunication
Union (ITU), a leading United Nations agency for technology
issues. Since the turn of the century, ITU observes, the growth of
mobile cellular subscribers has been impressive, with year-on-year
growth averaging 24% between 2000 and 2008. While in 2000, mobile
penetration stood at only 12%, it surpassed the 50% mark by early 2008.
It is estimated to reach about 61% by the end of 2008.
And ITU
said that there will be 4 billion mobile subscribers by the end of 2008.
