TECHNOLOGY FOR THE MASSES

Digital Lines: Future of 10 Global Tech Markets in 2009 

In today’s digitally connected world, businesses as well as consumers are highly dependent on technology trends and tech-based market offerings. So for them, here are the directions that 10 hot and hyped tech segments will follow in 2009. 

By Rakesh Raman

1. Social Networking: Today, there are almost a dozen big global (like Facebook, MySpace) and regional (like Friendster, regional editions of Orkut) consumer social networks that have around 300 million unique user members. Most are members of multiple networks and majority of them are inactive. Though social networks will keep adding new bells and whistles like mobile networking, language options, 3-D sites, and so on to attract users’ eyeballs, they won’t succeed to get advertisers’ attention. So most social networks will keep struggling and would hardly earn any meaningful bucks in 2009. However, the social networking model for corporate applications including interaction with employees, customers, channel partners, and other stakeholders will get more acceptance.
    
2. Mobile Market: With nearly 4 billion worldwide subscribers (including multiple subscriptions with a single user), it appears to the naked eyes that this market is bringing pots full of gold for the operators. However, there is a marked difference between the fact and the fiction. Most mobile players are worried because of dwindling ARPU (average revenue per user) levels, as the voice-only markets are not lucrative enough and are fast saturating. Data services are not picking up steam despite operators’ efforts due to multiple factors ranging from device form factor to lack of mobile content to weak networks. The year 2009 will only be a status quo affair for mobile industry – increasing subscriptions, low ARPU.
    
3. Convergence: A triangular love affair will further flourish in 2009 among Web, entertainment, and technology companies. And you can expect to see some good deals like last year’s MGM and YouTube channel for VOD action programming, DreamWorks Animation and Intel for 3-D animation in movies, Netflix and Microsoft for movies and TV shows through Xbox 360, and so on. This will not only be good for players in all these business segments, but consumers are going to gain considerably from the hybrid offers.
    
4. Web Search: The Google-led search brigade comprising Google, Yahoo!, Microsoft, and a few smaller ones will keep thriving on the confusion created around search. Don’t expect anything positive in the search technology and you’d keep sifting through dozens of Web pages for every single query that you have. While this type of crude search system is good for search companies, as they can show plenty of ad-loaded redundant pages to consumers, it’s not good for the search market. And the so-called search engine optimization (SEO) outfits will keep adding fuel to the fire by hoodwinking the user organizations for a service that has little value because search engine technology itself is in a bad shape.
    
5. Cloud: The term “cloud computing” sounds good. That’s it. Cloud services are supposed to help cash-strapped small and medium businesses (SMBs) who lack capital for creating their own infrastructure but are comfortable to pay for the service they use. However, cloud-based services will fail to reach such small users, at least, in 2009. Reason: most players are not able to clearly convey the advantages, if any, of cloud-based service models. So, a few big players like IBM, Microsoft, and Google will keep experimenting with their cloud offerings with a few big user organizations.
    
6. Tiny Computers: You can neither keep them in your pocket nor on the desk. Their applications are also limited. So they can’t be substitutes for traditional laptops. People will rather prefer a good smartphone for equivalent functionality. Small computers like netbooks will take plenty of time to prove their worth to most users. Yes, you can, of course, use them as birthday gifts or something. But 2009 is not going to be lucky year for these tiny machines.
    
7. Digital Games: This is perhaps the most action-packed market like most game titles. And after PCs and gaming consoles, now games are fast capturing the mobile screens. While mobile and PC gaming will remain sluggish in 2009, the console-based gaming market is poised for some explosive growth. The factors that will spur the growth are services like Sony’s PlayStation Home, which is a 3D social gaming community available on PS3 and a similar one Microsoft’s Xbox LIVE, an online gaming service for the worldwide community of gamers. Plus, the entry of big movie makers like Columbia Pictures, DreamWorks, Paramount, and Universal Pictures will add more creativity to gaming content, which is good for the consumers as well as the market. So 2009 is going to be full of promise for games and gamers.
    
8. Online Business: After the infamous dotcom era, the online market – mainly comprising content and information services – never showed signs of recovery, though the hubbub is now louder. Except for a handful of online properties at the top, all others will keep struggling. And their percentage ad revenue share in the global ad market will stay in single digit only. The reasons for this weak performance are haphazard content presentation techniques and lack of standards for ad impact measurement. The so-called social media modules will prove to be more chaotic because they lack discipline required for a serious content activity. While most online properties will keep attracting more eyeballs of wandering surfers, it’ll be difficult for the owners to translate popularity into profits. So can’t say Happy New Year to online businesses.
    
9. PCs: Though naysayers have repeatedly pronounced the death of conventional PC, truth is PCs (including desktops and notebooks) have been witnessing steady market growth. And the growth trend will continue because when it comes to corporate applications, there is hardly any alternative to PC. It goes without saying that enterprises will be the major buyers for PCs in 2009 also. However, PC’s transformation is due. And companies like IBM are already leading a campaign against Microsoft-dominated PCs by introducing Linux desktops that leverage virtualization technology. But don’t expect any miracle in 2009, as Microsoft software will keep occupying prime space in the PC boxes. There will be hardly any change in the physical design of PCs.
    
10. Online Videos: Thanks to services like Hulu and the organized side of YouTube, the popularity of online videos will keep increasing in 2009 as well. Also, the news, entertainment, and media companies that are increasingly offering video content through their websites will add more excitement to the business. Traditional TV content players who are not ready to accept this change and not willing to transform will find it difficult to survive. Though initially online video market will flourish in the developed parts of the world, the popularity will soon ripple out in other markets mainly with the emergence of faster, say 3G-based or broadband, data transfer networks for smoother Internet experience.

Rakesh Raman is the managing editor of My Techbox Online.