Tech Shopping? No Way
Bad news for tech marketers. Researcher IDC estimates a dismal 0.5%
growth in worldwide IT spending for 2009. While the persisting
recession is taking its toll, IDC says if recent exchange rate trends
continue, a significant decline in revenues for U.S.-based IT
suppliers is expected.
The
greatest impact will be felt in global hardware markets, where overall
spending growth will be 3.6% this year, led by a steep decline in
outlays for servers, PCs, and printers/MFPs. In contrast, worldwide
spending on software and IT services are each expected to grow 3.4% in
2009, down from 4.6% and 3.7% growth respectively in the previous
forecast. Worldwide IT spending in 2009 will be $1.44 trillion.
In another study,
Gartner said
IT spending budgets will remain flat
with a meagre 0.16% increase in 2009, according to results from the
2009 CIO survey by Gartner Executive Programs (EXP).
While
recession is the main cause for this market sickness, a recent
Deloitte online survey of over 1,445
U.S. executives showed that 58.4% expect the current recession to
continue for two to three more years.
In
the U.S., IDC is now forecasting year-over-year growth of 0.1% in
overall IT spending, down from the November forecast of 0.9% growth.
Paralleling the worldwide market, hardware will experience a sharp
decline in spending with 16% growth while software and IT services
spending will grow by 4% and 3% respectively. U.S. IT spending will
total nearly $491 billion in 2009.
Other
highlights:
- Overall IT spending in
Western Europe is now expected to grow 0.1% year over year in 2009,
down from the November forecast of 1.2% growth. IDC expects IT
spending in Germany and the United Kingdom to remain essentially
flat in 2009, while France and Italy will experience negative
growth.
- The forecast for IT
spending growth in Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) has also been
reduced, with overall growth now expected to be 1.4%, down from the
earlier forecast of 4% growth. IT spending in China is expected to
grow 6.5%, down from 9.1%, and India's growth has been reduced to
5.7% from 10%.
- Japan will experience
year-over-year IT spending growth of 1.8% in 2009, down from the
previous forecast of 1.0% growth.
- Latin America will enjoy
gains in all three market segments, driving overall IT spending to
4% growth in 2009, down from the November forecast of 8%. IT
spending in Brazil will grow by 6% in 2009, down somewhat from the
9% forecast in November.
- In Central and Eastern
Europe, IT spending will grow 7.5% in 2009 as a result of worsening
economic assumptions and business climate volatility.
- The Middle East & Africa
is expected to continue on a growth trajectory of almost 8% in 2009,
down slightly from the November forecast of 8.5% growth.
The
IDC report, Economic Crisis Response: Worldwide IT Spending
20082012 Forecast Update February 2009 Revision provides a
top-line summary of IDC's latest forecast for IT spending, which has
been revised to reflect the ongoing impact of the financial crisis
that first hit in September 2008.
In
November last year,
IDC had said spending will grow 2.6%
year over year in 2009, down from its pre-crisis forecast of 5.9%
growth.
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