Peek into the Future with
Forecasting Games
The
Institute for the Future (IFTF), an independent non-profit research
organization, has launched a new research platform composed of Massively
Multiplayer Forecasting Games (MMFGs). MMFGs are collaborative,
open-source simulations of imagined future scenarios. Designed to address
real world problems by harnessing the wisdom of crowds, IFTF's new MMFG
platform launches with multiple games this fall that invite diverse global
groups of people to contribute to futures research through games.
Unlike
predictions markets where answers fall within a finite range of outcomes,
the Institute has created MMFGs to gain insight into situations where the
outcome is unknown.
"People
are tired of feeling helpless about their future -- and there's a lot of
uncertainty right now. The introduction of this new platform for research
and problem solving gives people a sense of agency and control in
preparing for their future," said Marina Gorbis, executive director of
IFTF. "As a leading force of innovation in forecasting methodologies, we
realized that creating a truly open and collaborative environment for
people to imagine, plan for, and ultimately built the future could better
serve our clients and the community."
Each
MMFG's backstory is defined by a unique set of "future parameters" culled
from the IFTF's forecast research. These future scenarios introduce new
technologies, discoveries, and social phenomenon likely to develop in the
next 10 to 25 years.
Players
document their personal reactions to the scenario and are asked to imagine
and record how their families, local communities, or their extended social
networks might respond to the game scenarios. Encouraged to build Web
sites, produce blogs and wikis, upload podcasts and video, players will
persuasively record, discuss, and debate the details of how they imagine
their own personal futures might play out within the game parameters.
IFTF
has also introduced an MMFG -- Superstruct (http://www.superstructgame.org/).
Set in 2019, Superstruct asks players to imagine and help find solutions
to five "super-threats" looming over the population -- including global
food shortages, crippling pandemics, super-hackers derailing public
infrastructure, mass homelessness, and a global fuel war. Developed by
IFTF researchers Jane McGonigal, Kathi Vian, and Jamais Casico,
Superstruct aims to harness the strategic thinking and creativity of its
players to find plausible solutions to potential real-life problems.
"Massively multiplayer forecasting games is not just a new tool for
forecasting, but also a continuation of IFTF's efforts to make forecasting
more public, more inclusive, and more experiential," says Howard
Rheingold, social media expert and author of Smart Mobs. "A forecasting
game is a kind of simulation, a kind of scenario, a kind of
teleconference, a kind of artifact from the future -- and more -- that
enlists the participants as "first-person forecasters."
IFTF will
launch three additional forecasting games this year: a game in partnership
with United Cerebral Palsy simulating a future reality of caring, a game
around earthquake simulation in collaboration with the Art Center College
of Design's Design Matters program, and finally, "X2," which will convene
a wide variety of distinguished participants from the worlds of science
and technology to contribute to the collective knowledge of the future.
Photo
courtesy: IFTF
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